In a previous post written last month, I explained why newly elected New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is not estimated by NOMINATE to be among the most liberal members of the Democratic caucus. At that post, I focused on the votes that led NOMINATE to moderate her ideal point and, in particular, to locate Ocasio-Cortez at a much more moderate position that other progressive first termers such as Lauren Underwood, Rashida Tlaib, and Ilhan Omar. Since that time, new rollcalls taken on funding for the border crisis have pushed Tlaib, Omar, and Ayanna Pressley, who had previously been estimated to be among the most progressive Democrats, towards the location occupied by Ocasio-Cortez. Interestingly, Lauren Underwood's estimated position has not shifted and remains among the very most liberal Democratic first termers as estimated by NOMINATE.
The logic driving these new placements exactly follows that described in the previous post and I refer the reader to that post for a more detailed explanation. Here I will simply highlight those new votes on which Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Tlaib, and Pressley broke ranks with nearly every other member of Democratic caucus and voted with nearly every Republican. Those votes are interpreted by NOMINATE as conservative votes and NOMINATE adjusts those members' locations to accommodate those votes accordingly. Over time, we expect those progressive members' ideal points to drift back towards the left flank of their party as more votes that cleave all of the progressives from the rest of Democratic conference and the Republican conference are taken.
Here we see the first-dimension NOMINATE score ranking of freshman Democrats from most to least liberal as of January 20, 2022. Note that Underwood remains among the most liberal of the new class, but Omar, Pressley, and Tlaib are longer estimated to be among the most progressive as they were in the previous post.
| Rank | Member | NOMINATE 1st Dimension |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GARCIA, Sylvia (TX-29) | -0.817 |
| 2 | CASTEN, Sean (IL-6) | -0.565 |
| 3 | UNDERWOOD, Lauren (IL-14) | -0.544 |
| 4 | LEVIN, Andy (MI-9) | -0.518 |
| 5 | GARCÍA, Jesús (IL-4) | -0.484 |
| 6 | DEAN, Madeleine (PA-4) | -0.478 |
| 7 | TRAHAN, Lori (MA-3) | -0.462 |
| 8 | ALLRED, Colin (TX-32) | -0.430 |
| 9 | ESCOBAR, Veronica (TX-16) | -0.419 |
| 10 | NEGUSE, Joseph (CO-2) | -0.418 |
| 11 | FLETCHER, Elizabeth (TX-7) | -0.408 |
| 12 | WEXTON, Jennifer (VA-10) | -0.385 |
| 13 | HARDER, Josh (CA-10) | -0.378 |
| 14 | CISNEROS, Gil (CA-39) | -0.376 |
| 15 | LEVIN, Mike (CA-49) | -0.374 |
| 16 | HAYES, Jahana (CT-5) | -0.367 |
| 17 | SHALALA, Donna (FL-27) | -0.352 |
| 18 | MUCARSEL-POWELL, Debbie (FL-26) | -0.345 |
| 19 | SCHRIER, Kim (WA-8) | -0.344 |
| 20 | COX, TJ (CA-21) | -0.343 |
| 21 | ROUDA, Harley (CA-48) | -0.336 |
| 22 | HAALAND, Debra (NM-1) | -0.332 |
| 23 | STEVENS, Haley (MI-11) | -0.331 |
| 24 | STANTON, Greg (AZ-9) | -0.321 |
| 25 | SLOTKIN, Elissa (MI-8) | -0.319 |
| 26 | HOULAHAN, Christina (PA-6) | -0.316 |
| 27 | CRAIG, Angela (MN-2) | -0.312 |
| 28 | PRESSLEY, Ayanna (MA-7) | -0.311 |
| 29 | HILL, Katie (CA-25) | -0.306 |
| 30 | LEE, Susie (NV-3) | -0.292 |
| 31 | OMAR, Ilhan (MN-5) | -0.288 |
| 32 | PAPPAS, Chris (NH-1) | -0.287 |
| 33 | KIM, Andy (NJ-3) | -0.286 |
| 34 | CROW, Jason (CO-6) | -0.280 |
| 35 | TRONE, David (MD-6) | -0.274 |
| 36 | McBATH, Lucy (GA-6) | -0.266 |
| 37 | MALINOWSKI, Tomaz (NJ-7) | -0.262 |
| 38 | PHILLIPS, Dean (MN-3) | -0.259 |
| 39 | TLAIB, Rashida (MI-13) | -0.256 |
| 40 | DAVIDS, Sharice (KS-3) | -0.254 |
| 41 | OCASIO-CORTEZ, Alexandria (NY-14) | -0.245 |
| 42 | AXNE, Cynthia (IA-3) | -0.242 |
| 43 | DELGADO, Antonio (NY-19) | -0.232 |
| 44 | FINKENAUER, Abby (IA-1) | -0.224 |
| 45 | SHERRILL, Mikie (NJ-11) | -0.199 |
| 46 | LURIA, Elaine (VA-2) | -0.196 |
| 47 | PORTER, Katie (CA-45) | -0.184 |
| 48 | ROSE, Max (NY-11) | -0.176 |
| 49 | SPANBERGER, Abigail (VA-7) | -0.174 |
| 50 | HORN, Kendra (OK-5) | -0.169 |
| 51 | TORRES SMALL, Xochitl (NM-2) | -0.163 |
| 52 | BRINDISI, Anthony (NY-22) | -0.154 |
| 53 | VAN DREW, Jefferson (NJ-2) | -0.147 |
| 54 | CUNNINGHAM, Joe (SC-1) | -0.131 |
| 55 | GOLDEN, Jared (ME-2) | -0.112 |
| 56 | McADAMS, Ben (UT-4) | -0.069 |
| 57 | HALL, Kwanza (GA-5) | NA |
| 58 | SAN NICOLAS, Michael (GU-1) | NA |
| 59 | PLASKETT, Stacey E. (VI-1) | NA |
The table below shows all of the votes on which Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pressley and Tlaib are predicted by NOMINATE to have less than a 40 percent chance (on average) of casting a vote on the side that they did and on which they all voted the same way. The table also shows the predicted probability of votes cast by Underwood on those same rollcalls (recall that Underwood is estimated to be second most liberal Democratic freshman). The roll call numbers shown in the first column are also clickable links to the pages for those votes on Voteview. The votes are sorted by the average probability that NOMINATE attaches to their votes on each roll call. The most important of these votes for determining member's locations is Roll Call 413 for which Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Tlaib and Pressley were the only Democrats to defect from their Democrat colleagues and vote with all but three of members of the Republican caucus.
| Rollcall | Bill | Description | Vote | Prob. | Votes | Avg. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 949 | HR133 | United States-Mexico Economic Partnership Act (On Concurring in Senate Amdt with Portion of Amdt Comprising of Divisions B, C, E, and F) | Y | 87.4 | NNNN | 34.1 |
| 851 | HR6395 | William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act (On Passage) | Y | 89.4 | NNNN | 38.2 |
| 937 | HR6395 | William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act (On Agreeing to the Conference Report) | Y | 91.1 | NNNN | 35.3 |
| 450 | HR2500 | On Agreeing to the Amendment | Y | 91.2 | NNNN | 22.9 |
| 72 | HR840 | On Agreeing to the Amendment | Y | 96.8 | NNNN | 18.3 |
| 86 | HJRES31 | Making further continuing appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security for fiscal year 2019, and for other purposes (On Agreeing to the Conference Report) | Y | 96.8 | NNNN | 20.5 |
| 346 | HR2740 | On Agreeing to the Amendment | Y | 98.5 | NNNN | 27.5 |
| 905 | HR4447 | Expanding Access to Sustainable Energy Act (On Passage) | Y | 99.6 | NNNN | 38.9 |
| 630 | HR3055 | Making appropriations for the Departments of Commerce and Justice, Science, and Related Agencies for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2020, and for other purposes (On Motion to Concur in the Senate Amendment with an Amendment) | Y | 99.7 | NNNN | 24.1 |
| 413 | HR3401 | Making emergency supplemental appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2019, and for other purposes (On Passage) | Y | 100.0 | NNNN | 24.3 |
| 651 | HRES326 | Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives regarding United States efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a negotiated two-state solution (On Agreeing to the Resolution) | Y | 100.0 | NNNN | 9.5 |
| 805 | HRES967 | Providing for consideration of H. Res. 965; providing for consideration of the bill (H.R. 6800) making emergency supplemental appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2020, and for other purposes; providing for proceedings during the period from May 19, 2020, through July 21, 2020; and for other purposes (On Agreeing to the Resolution) | Y | 100.0 | NNNN | 39.4 |
| 877 | HR7617 | Making appropriations for the Department of Defense for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2021, and for other purposes (On Passage) | Y | 100.0 | NNNN | 37.6 |
To maximize the likelihood of these votes under NOMINATE's spatial voting model, Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pressley, and Tlaib's positions are shifted away from Underwood's location and towards the locations of the Republican members. As described in the previous post, shifting their locations in this way does not substantially reduce the fit of the very large number of votes on which Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pressley and Tlaib sided with Underwood, but not moving them would greatly reduce the fit model for those few rollcalls on which they did not (such as Roll Call 413).